Phenolab Publications


Weir, J. C. and Phillimore, A. B. (2024) Buffering and phenological mismatch: a change in perspective. Global Change Biology Accepted.

Macphie, K.H. & Phillimore, A.B (2024) Phenology primer. Current Biology, 34: PR183


Lovell, R.S., Collins, S., Martin, S.H., Pigot, A.L. and Phillimore, A.B. (2023) Space‐for‐time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biological Reviews98: 2243

Macphie, K.H., Samplonius, J.M., Pick, J.L., Hadfield, J.D. and Phillimore, A.B. (2023) Modelling thermal sensitivity in the full phenological distribution: A new approach applied to the spring arboreal caterpillar peak. Functional Ecology37: 3015

Branston, C.J., Whittingham, M.J., Phillimore, A.B., Leech, D. and Willis, S.G. (2023) The phenology and clutch size of UK Blue Tits does not differ with woodland composition. Ibis

2022 Keogan, K., Daunt, F., Wanless, S., Phillips, R.A., Alvarez, D., Anker‐Nilssen, T., Barrett, R.T., Bech, C., Becker, P.H., Berglund, P.A. and Bouwhuis, S. (2022) Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales. Journal of Animal Ecology91: 1797

Daskalova, G.N., Phillimore, A.B. & Myers‐Smith, I.H. (2021). Accounting for year effects and sampling error in temporal analyses of invertebrate population and biodiversity change: a comment on Seibold et al. 2019 Insect Conservation and Diversity, 14: 149

Samplonius, J.M. et al. (2021) Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 5: 155

Keogan, K., et al. (2021). No evidence for fitness signatures consistent with increasing trophic mismatch over 30 years in a population of European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis Journal of Animal Ecology, 90: 432


Valente, L., Phillimore, A.B., Melo, M., Warren, B.H., Clegg, S.M., Havenstein, K., Tiedemann, R., Illera, J.C., Thébaud, C., Aschenbach, T. & Etienne, R.S. (2020). A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide. Nature, pp.1-5.

Shutt, J. D., Nicholls, J.A., Trivedi, U.H., Burgess, M.D., Stone, G.N., Hadfield, J.D. & Phillimore, A.B. (2020) Gradients in richness and turnover of a forest passerine’s diet prior to breeding: a mixed model approach applied to faecal metabarcoding data. Molecular Ecology, 29: 1199


Shutt, J.D., Cabello, I.B., Keogan, K., Leech, D.I., Samplonius, J.M., Whittle, L., Burgess, M.D. & Phillimore, A.B. (2019). The environmental predictors of spatio-temporal variation in the breeding phenology of a passerine bird. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 286(1908), 20190952.

Shutt, J. D., Burgess, M.D., & Phillimore, A.B. (2019) A spatial perspective on the phenological distribution of the spring woodland caterpillar peak. American Naturalist

Assman, J.J et al. (2019) Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra. Global Change Biology

Daskalova, G.N., Phillimore, A.B., Bell, M. Maggs, H.E., & Perkins, A. J. (2019) Population responses of farmland bird species to agri‐environment schemes and land management options in Northeastern Scotland. Journal of Applied Ecology


Burgess, M. D. et al. (2018) Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum. Nature Ecology and Evolution

Keogan, K. et al. (2018) Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. Nature Climate Change

Shutt, J. D., Bolton, M., Cabello, IM, Burgess, M.D., & Phillimore, A.B. (2018) The effects of woodland habitat and biogeography on blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus territory occupancy and productivity along a 220 km transect. Ecography

Valente, L., Phillimore, A.B., & Etienne, R.S. (2018). Using molecular phylogenies in island biogeography: it’s about time. Ecography182, 820.


Tansey, C.J., Hadfield, J.D. & Phillimore, A.B. (2017) Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum Global Change Biology

Usui, T., Butchart, S.H.M., & Phillimore, A.B. (2017) Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migration phenology: a phylogenetic meta-analysis. Journal of Animal Ecology


Phillimore, A.B., Leech, D.I., Pearce-Higgins, J.W. & Hadfield, J.D. (2016) Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature-mediated shifts in optimum lay date. Global Change Biology, 22: 3259

Etienne, R.S., Pigot, A.L. & Phillimore, A.B. (2016) How reliably can we infer diversity-dependent diversification from phylogenies? Methods in Ecology & Evolution. 7, 1092


Rosser, N., Kozak, K.M., Phillimore, A.B., & Mallet, J. (2015) Extensive range overlap between heliconiine sister species: evidence for sympatric speciation in butterflies? BMC Evolutionary Biology: 15, 125

Valente, L.M., Phillimore, A.B., & Etienne, R.S. (2015) Equilibrum and non-equilibrium dynamics simultaneously operate in the Galapagos archipelago. Ecology Letters

Roy, D.B., Oliver, T.H., Botham, M.S., Beckmann, B., Brereton, T., Dennis, R.L.H., Harrower, C., Phillimore, A.B. & Thomas, J.A. (2015) Similarities in butterfly emergence dates amongst populations suggest local adaptation to climate. Global Change Biology

Roberts, A.M.I, Tansey, C.J, Smithers, R.J. &Phillimore, A. B. (2015). Predicting a change in the order of forest spring phenology. Global Change Biology


Valente L.M., Etienne, R.S & Phillimore, A.B. (2014) The effects of island ontogeny on species diversity and phylogeny Proc. R. Soc. B. 281: 20133227


Phillimore A.B., Proios K., O' Mahony N., Bernard R., Lord A.M., Atkinson S. & Smithers R.J. (2013). Inferring local processes from macro-scale phenological pattern: a comparison of two methods. Journal of Ecology 101: 774-783

Sutherland, W. J., Freckleton, R.P., Godfray, H.C.J., Beissinger, S.R., Benton, T., Cameron, D.D., Carmel, Y., Coomes, D.A., Coulson, T., Emmerson, M.C., Hails, R.S., Hays, G.C., Hodgson, D. J., Hutchings, M. J., Johnson, D., Jones, J. P.G., Keeling, M.J., Kokko, H., Kunin, W.E., Lambin, X., Lewis, O.T., Malhi, Y., Mieszkowska, N., Milner-Gulland, E.J., Norris, K., Phillimore, A.B., Purves, D.W., Reid, J.M., Reuman, D.C., Thompson, K., Travis, J.M.J., Turnbull, L.A., Wardle, D.A. and Wiegand, T. (2013). Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions. Journal of Ecology 101: 58-67


Phillimore, A. B., S. Stålhandske, R. J. Smithers, and R. Bernard. 2012. Dissecting the contributions of plasticity and local adaptation to the phenology of a butterfly and its host plants. American Naturalist 180: 655-670 [pdf] [appendix A] [R code]

Lawrence, D., F. Fiegna, V. Behrends, J. G. Bundy, A. B. Phillimore, T. Bell, and T.G. Barraclough. 2012. Species interactions alter species responses to a novel environment. PLoS Biology 10: e1001330 [article]

Etienne, R., B. Haegeman, T. Stadler, T. Aze, P. N. Pearson, A. Purvis, and A. B. Phillimore. 2012. Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 279: 1300-1309 [pdf] [supp. info]

Rosser, N., A. B. Phillimore, B. Huertas, K. R. Willmott, and J. Mallet. 2012. Testing historical explanations for gradients in heliconiine butterflies of tropical America. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 105: 479-497. [article]

Bunnefeld, N. and A. B. Phillimore. 2012 Island, archipelago and taxon effects: mixed models as a means of dealing with the imperfect design of nature’s experiments. Ecography 35: 15-22. [pdf]


Rosindell, J. and A. B. Phillimore. 2011. A unified model for island biogeography sheds light on the zone of radiation. Ecology Letters 14: 552-560. [pdf] [supp. info]

Meiri, S., P. Raia, and A. B. Phillimore. 2011. Slaying dragons: limited evidence for unusual body size evolution on islands. Journal of Biogeography 38: 89-100. [pdf]


Phillimore, A.B.*, J. D. Hadfield*, O. R. Jones, and R. J. Smithers. 2010. Differences in spawning date between populations of common frog reveal local adaptation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 107: 8292-8297. (* equal contribution) [pdf] [supp. info] [correction]

Pigot, A.L., A. B. Phillimore, I. P. F. Owens, and C. D. L. Orme. 2010. The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation. Systematic Biology 59: 660-673. [pdf]

Clegg, S.M., and A. B. Phillimore. 2010. The influence of migration and drift on genetic and phenotypic divergence in two species of Zosterops in Vanuatu. Phil Trans R. Soc. 365: 1077-1092. [pdf]

Ishtiaq, F., S. M. Clegg, A. B. Phillimore, R. A. Black, I. P. F. Owens, and B. C. Sheldon. 2010. Biogeographical patterns of blood parasite species diversity in avian hosts from southern Melanesian Islands. Journal of Biogeography 37: 120-132. [pdf]


Thomas, G.H., S. Meiri, and A. B. Phillimore. 2009. Body size diversification in Anolis: novel environment and island effects. Evolution 63: 2017-2030. [pdf]

Dawideit, B., A. B. Phillimore, I Laube, B. Leisler, and K. Bohning-Gaese. 2009. Ecomorphological predictors of natal dispersal distances in British birds. Journal of Animal Ecology 78: 388-395. [pdf]


Phillimore, A. B. and T. D. Price. 2008. Density dependent cladogenesis in birds. PLoS Biology 6, e71. [article]

Phillimore, A. B., C. D. L. Orme, G. H. Thomas, T. M. Blackburn, P. M. Bennett, K. J. Gaston, and I. P. F. Owens. 2008. Sympatric speciation in birds is rare: insights from range data and simulations American Naturalist 171: 646-657. [pdf] [appendix]

Phillimore, A. B., I. P. F. Owens, R. Black, J. Chittock, T. A. Burke, and S. M. Clegg. 2008. Complex patterns of genetic and phenotypic divergence in an island bird and the consequences for delimiting conservation units. Molecular Ecology 17: 2839-2853. [pdf]

Ishtiaq, F., L. Guillaumot, S. M. Clegg, A. B. Phillimore, R. A. Black, I. P. F. Owens, N. I. Mundy, and B. C. Sheldon. 2008. Avian haematozoan parasites and their associations with mosquitoes across Southwest Pacific Islands. Molecular Ecology 17: 4545-4555. [pdf]

Freckleton, R. P., A. B. Phillimore, and M. Pagel. 2008. Relating traits to diversification: a simple test. American Naturalist 172: 102-115. [pdf] [appendix]


Phillimore, A. B., C. D. L. Orme, R. G. Davies, J. D. Hadfield, W. J. Reed, K. J. Gaston, R. P. Freckleton, and I. P. F. Owens. 2007. Biogeographical basis of recent phenotypic divergence among birds: A global study of subspecies richness. Evolution 61: 942-957. [pdf]

Price, T. D., and A. B. Phillimore, A.B. 2007. Reduced major axis regression and the island rule. Journal of Biogeography 34: 1998-1999. [pdf]


Phillimore, A. B., R. P. Freckleton, C. D. L. Orme, and I. P. F. Owens. 2006. Ecology predicts large-scale patterns of phylogenetic diversification in birds. American Naturalist 168: 220-229. [pdf] [appendix]

Phillimore, A. B. and I. P. F. Owens. 2006. Are subspecies useful in evolutionary and conservation biology? Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 273: 1049-1053. [pdf] [appendix]

Hadfield, J.D., M. D. Burgess, M. A. Lord, A. B. Phillimore, S. M. Clegg, and I. P. F. Owens. 2006. Direct versus indirect sexual selection: genetic basis of colour size and recruitment in a wild bird. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 273: 1347-1353. [pdf]

Book Chapters

Phillimore, A.B. (In Press) Geography, range evolution and speciation in “The Princeton Guide to Evolution”. Eds. Losos
, J., Baum
, D., Futuyma
, D.J., Hoekstra
, H., Lenski
. R., Moore
, A., Schluter
, D., Whitlock
, M. Princeton University Press.

Phillimore, A.B. 2010. Subspecies origination and extinction in birds. Ornithological Monographs 67: 42-53. [pdf]

Price, T.D., A. B. Phillimore, M. Awodey, and R Hudson. 2010. Nonecological and ecological causes of the evolution of sexually selected traits on islands. in In Search of the Causes of Evolution. Eds. Grant P. R & Grant, B. R. Princeton University Press

Phillimore, A.B. and T. D Price. 2009. Ecological influences on the temporal pattern of speciation. In Speciation and Patterns of Diversity. Eds Butlin, R. K., Bridle, J. & Schluter, D. Cambridge University Press. Pp 240-256. [pdf]